BTC Risk Radar

Generate a verifiable BTC risk snapshot from public data, then produce a concise analyst conclusion.

This skill is a read-only heuristic risk-state framework, not a full institutional analytics stack. Several fields are deliberate proxies / approximations and must be presented as such.

Workflow

1. Run scripts/btc_risk_radar.py to collect current public data and compute metrics.
2. Read JSON output first; treat it as the source of truth.
3. Explain conclusions with explicit confidence, caveats, and data gaps.
4. Avoid deterministic predictions; present risk state (GREEN/AMBER/RED) and trigger reasons.
5. If venue coverage is partial, keep going and surface degraded confidence rather than pretending coverage is complete.

Quick Audit Path

For a fast review:

1. Run python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --sources
2. Run python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --json
3. Confirm the script only performs read-only public HTTP requests and returns a market snapshot with caveats.
4. Verify that proxy metrics and partial-data conditions are explicitly disclosed in output.

Commands

python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --json
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --sources
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --version
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --prompt "用户问题"
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --lang en
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --lang zh
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --horizon-hours 72
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --event-mode high-alert
python3 skills/btc-risk-radar/scripts/btc_risk_radar.py --audience beginner --lang zh

Safety / Scope Boundary

• Read-only skill: query public market APIs only.
• Use no authentication, cookies, API keys, private accounts, or wallet access.
• Execute no trades, place no orders, and mutate no exchange state.
• Write no files and send no external messages as part of normal use.
• Produce analysis only; not investment advice.

Output Policy

• Default language behavior: auto.
• If --lang auto and the prompt contains Chinese, switch final narrative to Chinese.
• If --lang auto and no Chinese is detected, use English.
• --json output is language-neutral.
• Always include:
• as_of_utc
• key metrics (ATM IV, RR25, RR15, put-volume proxy, funding, basis)
• availability
• data_gaps
• degraded_mode
• 72h validation matrix (validation_72h)
• confidence (confidence.score, confidence.level)
• action trigger set (action_triggers)
• data-source note and caveats
• Audience modes:
• pro (default): concise trading/risk language
• beginner: plain-language educational explanation with metric interpretation
• Event modes:
• normal (default)
• high-alert (more sensitive thresholds for macro/event windows)

Interpretation Guardrails

• put_buy_share_proxy is a proxy from put/call volume split, not true aggressor signed-flow.
• RR and ATM IV are computed from front-expiry delta-nearest options; this is robust but may differ from proprietary dashboards.
• Funding regime is an aggregated public snapshot, not a full term-structure model.
• RED means elevated downside risk pricing, not guaranteed crash.
• Partial venue failure should lower confidence, not silently disappear from the narrative.

Data Sources (public)

• Deribit Public API
• /public/get_instruments
• /public/get_order_book
• /public/get_book_summary_by_currency
• /public/get_index_price
• /public/get_book_summary_by_instrument
• Coinbase Public API
• /v2/prices/BTC-USD/spot
• Binance Public API (optional)
• /api/v3/ticker/price
• OKX Public API
• /api/v5/market/ticker
• /api/v5/public/funding-rate
• Bybit Public API
• /v5/market/tickers