BTC Mid-Candle Scalper 🔥

75%+ win rate. Real money. 400+ trades. This is the highest-performing BTC strategy in the Simmer ecosystem — built, battle-tested, and profitable over months of live trading. Now you can run it yourself.

This is a template. The default signal is mid-candle BTC momentum from Binance klines — remix it with your own data sources, tighter time windows, or custom volume filters. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your tuning provides the alpha.

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What It Does

Polymarket's BTC Up/Down markets close every 15 minutes at :00, :15, :30, and :45. Most traders enter blind at candle open — guessing direction with no data. This strategy waits.

The edge: By the time 2–12 minutes remain in a candle, BTC has shown its hand. If 5-minute and 3-minute price changes both agree on direction AND volume confirms it isn't noise — that's a high-conviction trade with a known time horizon.

The result: 65–75%+ win rate depending on your settings. Defaults are calibrated to produce edge out of the box.

⚠️ Important: The defaults are a starting point, not a magic formula. You need to fine-tune these settings to your account size, risk tolerance, and market conditions. A trader who tunes their thresholds will outperform one who runs defaults. The strategy section below explains exactly what each knob does.

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Setup

1. Install & configure

clawhub install polymarket-btc-midcandle

Set your API key:

export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_your_key_here

Or set it in your .env file if using OpenClaw.

2. Get your Poly Agent ID

Find it at simmer.markets/dashboard → Agents. Copy your agent ID.

python btc_midcandle.py --set poly_agent_id=your_agent_id_here

3. Run in paper mode first

python btc_midcandle.py

You'll see [PAPER MODE] — no real money moves. Watch it for a day. Make sure the signals make sense.

4. Go live

python btc_midcandle.py --live

5. Set up cron (recommended)

crontab -e

Add:

3,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,53,58 * * * * cd /path/to/skill && python btc_midcandle.py --live >> /var/log/btc-midcandle.log 2>&1

Runs every 5 minutes. This timing is intentional — entering slightly after the candle opens gives you confirmed momentum rather than a guess.

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Configuration

# View current config
python btc_midcandle.py --config

# Set a value
python btc_midcandle.py --set momentum_threshold=0.0012
python btc_midcandle.py --set bet_size=10.0

Parameter	Env Var	Default	Description
poly_agent_id	SIMMER_BTCMC_AGENT_ID	—	Your Polymarket agent ID (required)
bet_size	SIMMER_BTCMC_BET_SIZE	5.0	USDC per trade
momentum_threshold	SIMMER_BTCMC_THRESHOLD	0.0015	Min 5m price change (0.15%)
min_volume_ratio	SIMMER_BTCMC_VOL_RATIO	1.2	Volume vs 2h avg (0 = disabled)
min_entry_price	SIMMER_BTCMC_MIN_ENTRY	0.45	Min entry price per side
max_entry_price	SIMMER_BTCMC_MAX_ENTRY	0.65	Max entry price per side
enable_1m_confirm	SIMMER_BTCMC_1M_CONFIRM	false	Require 1m candle to confirm
skip_hours	SIMMER_BTCMC_SKIP_HOURS	2,9,10,11,15	UTC hours to skip (see warning below)
discord_webhook	SIMMER_BTCMC_WEBHOOK	""	Discord alert webhook (optional)
max_position_usd	SIMMER_BTCMC_MAX_POSITION	50.0	Max USDC per trade when using --smart-sizing
sizing_pct	SIMMER_BTCMC_SIZING_PCT	0.03	Portfolio % per trade when using --smart-sizing (3%)

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⛔ Skip Hours — Do Not Remove Without Data

The following UTC hours are skipped by default because BTC midcandle has historically poor win rate during these windows:

Hour (UTC)	Local time (ET)	Why it's bad
2h	10pm ET (prev night)	Low volume, thin books, random noise
9h	5am ET	Pre-market — BTC drifts without conviction
10h	6am ET	Pre-market open — spread widens, fills unpredictable
11h	7am ET	Early NY session — choppy before real volume arrives
15h	11am ET	Post-open chop — directional momentum breaks down

These are configured as skip_hours = "2,9,10,11,15" and enforced automatically. Do not remove hours from this list without your own shadow data showing consistent WR above 55% for that hour. Trading these hours is the single fastest way to drag your win rate below breakeven.

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Tuning Guide

This is where you find your edge. The defaults produce solid results, but tuning to your conditions can meaningfully improve win rate.

Momentum threshold (momentum_threshold)

Controls how much BTC must move in 5 minutes before you enter.

• Lower (0.0010): More trades, slightly lower accuracy. Good in trending markets.
• Higher (0.0020): Fewer trades, only strong moves. Better in choppy conditions.
• Start here: Run paper mode for 3–5 days. Check your --positions output. If you're getting too many marginal trades, raise it.

Volume ratio (min_volume_ratio)

Filters out low-volume momentum that tends to reverse.

• 0 (disabled): Maximum trade frequency. Raw momentum only.
• 1.2 (default): Only trade when volume is 1.2× the 2-hour average.
• 1.5–2.0: High-conviction only. Fewer trades, but strong volume confirmation.

Entry price window (min_entry_price / max_entry_price)

Filters out bad entries. Entry price is how much you pay per share.

• Too cheap (<0.40): You're betting against the crowd. Usually wrong.
• Too expensive (>0.70): High cost, limited upside.
• Sweet spot (0.45–0.65): Balanced risk/reward. Default is calibrated here.

1m confirmation (enable_1m_confirm) — OFF by default

Adds a final gate: the last 1-minute candle must agree with your direction before a trade fires.

• Disabled (default): More trades, some noise. Good baseline to start.
• Enabled: Reduces false signals at the cost of some missed entries. Recommended once you're comfortable with the strategy.

💡 Tip: Try enabling this after your first week. Compare your win rate with vs without — most traders see a meaningful improvement on choppy days.

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Commands

# Paper trade (default)
python btc_midcandle.py

# Live trade
python btc_midcandle.py --live

# Show open positions
python btc_midcandle.py --positions

# Portfolio-based sizing (% of balance)
python btc_midcandle.py --live --smart-sizing

# Skip safeguards (advanced — not recommended)
python btc_midcandle.py --live --no-safeguards

# View config
python btc_midcandle.py --config

# Set a config value
python btc_midcandle.py --set bet_size=10

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Example Output

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🔴 LIVE: BTC Mid-Candle Scalper — 2026-03-15 22:33 UTC
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⏰ Candle :30 | 8 min remaining | ✅ In window
📊 Volume: 1.41x ✅
📈 Momentum: up | 5m: +0.1821% | 3m: +0.0943%
📋 Market: Will BTC go up or down — March 15, 10:30-10:45PM ET?
💲 Entry price: 0.512 (side=yes)

🚀 Placing YES $5.00 — Mid-candle up (8m left): 5m=+0.1821% 3m=+0.0943% vol=1.41x
✅ Filled: 9.7 YES shares for $5.00

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Remix Ideas

The skill handles market discovery, execution, and safeguards. Swap in your own signal:

• Fear & Greed signal: Only trade when Crypto Fear & Greed is above 60 (greed confirms momentum)
• Order flow: Add Binance aggTrades to confirm buy/sell pressure before entering
• Multi-asset confirmation: Only enter BTC UP if ETH is also moving up (correlated moves are stronger)
• News filter: Skip trades during scheduled macro events (CPI, Fed announcements)

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Troubleshooting

No trades firing? - Check your cron is running: tail -f /var/log/btc-midcandle.log - Momentum threshold may be too high for current market conditions — try lowering to 0.0010 - Check Binance API is reachable from your server

Too many losing trades? - Raise momentum_threshold — only trade stronger moves - Enable enable_1m_confirm — adds a final confirmation step - Raise min_volume_ratio to 1.5 — only trade high-conviction volume

"No active BTC market found"? - Verify your poly_agent_id is set correctly - Check Simmer API status at status.simmer.markets

Win rate lower than expected? - Run paper mode for a week before going live — calibrate thresholds to your specific market hours - Check --positions for markets that are resolving against you — look for patterns in losing trades