SkillHub

polymarket-geopolitics-trader

v1.0.1

Trades Polymarket prediction markets on geopolitical events — wars, ceasefires, sanctions, diplomatic breakthroughs, and regime changes. Use when you want to capture alpha on international relations markets using fear-premium correction and regional news timezone windows.

Sourced from ClawHub, Authored by diagnostikon

Installation

Please help me install the skill `polymarket-geopolitics-trader` from SkillHub official store. npx skills add diagnostikon/polymarket-geopolitics-trader

Geopolitics & Conflict Trader

This is a template. The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and geopolitics_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

Geopolitical markets are systematically mispriced by retail traders in two ways: they overweight dramatic, scary outcomes relative to documented conflict research base rates, and they reprice slowly when breaking news hits during Asian or European business hours while US retail is asleep. This skill corrects both without any external API.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: Conviction-Based Sizing with Geopolitical Bias

  1. Discover active geopolitical markets on Polymarket using conflict/diplomacy keywords
  2. Compute base conviction from distance to threshold (0% at boundary → 100% at p=0/p=1)
  3. Apply geopolitics_bias() — combines fear-premium correction with regional news timing
  4. Size = max(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITION
  5. Skip markets with spread > MAX_SPREAD or fewer than MIN_DAYS to resolution

Geopolitics Bias (built-in, no API required)

Two compounding structural edges:

Factor 1 — Fear/Narrative Premium Correction

Retail systematically overprices dramatic, scary outcomes and underprices boring-but-likely ones. Conflict research databases (ACLED, ICG) document base rates that deviate sharply from media-driven market pricing:

Event type Why retail misprices it Multiplier
Nuclear / WMD use Post-WWII base rate is near-zero; media panic inflates 0.65x
Coup / regime change Retail overprices drama; ~50% actual success rate 0.75x
Full invasion / occupation Retail anchors to worst-case escalation 0.80x
Ceasefire / peace deal / truce Only ~40% of ceasefires hold within 6 months 0.80x
Sanctions / embargo ~30–40% achieve stated objectives; overestimated 0.85x
UN vote / Security Council P5 veto patterns are well-documented; procedural 1.10x
Diplomatic breakthrough Boring — retail consistently underprices it 1.15x

Factor 2 — Regional News Timing Window

Polymarket is US-dominated. Markets take 15–45 min to reprice events that break during Asian or European business hours when US retail is asleep:

Region Active window (UTC) Multiplier Rationale
Asia/Pacific (China, Taiwan, NK, Japan) 00:00–08:00 1.20x US asleep, repricing lag open
Asia/Pacific 13:00–22:00 0.95x US prime time — priced quickly
Europe/Middle East (Ukraine, Russia, Iran, Israel, NATO) 06:00–14:00 1.15x US just waking, partial lag
Europe/Middle East 18:00–04:00 0.95x Off-hours, less news flow

Combined and capped at 1.35x. A diplomatic breakthrough (1.15x) during Asia active hours (1.20x) → 1.35x cap. A nuclear market at any time → 0.65x floor.

Keywords Monitored

war, ceasefire, sanctions, NATO, Ukraine, Russia, China, Taiwan, Iran,
nuclear, UN, diplomacy, invasion, treaty, military, missile, coup,
election interference, espionage, regime change, Security Council,
veto, peace deal, summit, Gaza, Israel, North Korea, DPRK,
South China Sea

Remix Signal Ideas

  • GDELT Project: Real-time global event database — feed event velocity into p to trade divergence between conflict data and market pricing
  • ACLED conflict data: Armed conflict location and event intensity scores — use as leading indicator for escalation/de-escalation markets
  • UN Security Council voting records: P5 veto pattern analysis for UN vote markets
  • ICG (International Crisis Group) alerts: Early-warning signals for crisis escalation before markets react

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.

Scenario Mode Financial risk
python trader.py Paper (sim) None
Cron / automaton Paper (sim) None
python trader.py --live Live (polymarket) Real USDC

autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.

Required Credentials

Variable Required Notes
SIMMER_API_KEY Yes Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential.

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.

Variable Default Purpose
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION 30 Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction)
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME 20000 Min market volume filter (USD) — geopolitical markets need liquidity
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD 0.08 Max bid-ask spread (8%)
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS 5 Min days until resolution
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS 6 Max concurrent open positions
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD 0.38 Buy YES if market price ≤ this value
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD 0.62 Sell NO if market price ≥ this value
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE 5 Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction)

Dependency

simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz) - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ - GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk