Investment Analysis & Portfolio Management Engine
Complete investment analysis, portfolio construction, risk management, and trade execution methodology. Works across stocks, crypto, ETFs, bonds, and alternatives. Zero dependencies — pure agent skill.
Quick Health Check (/8)
Before any investment activity, score your current state:
| Signal |
✅ Healthy |
❌ Fix First |
| Investment thesis documented |
Written with edge + invalidation |
"I think it'll go up" |
| Position sizing calculated |
Kelly/fixed-fractional with max cap |
"I'll put in $5K" |
| Stop-loss defined |
Price or thesis invalidation trigger |
No exit plan |
| Portfolio heat tracked |
Total exposure known, <15% |
Unknown aggregate risk |
| Asset correlation checked |
No >40% correlated concentration |
All tech / all crypto |
| Rebalance schedule set |
Monthly or threshold-based |
Never rebalanced |
| Tax impact considered |
Harvesting losses, holding periods |
Tax-blind trading |
| Performance tracked |
Benchmarked vs buy-and-hold |
"I think I'm up" |
Score /8. Below 5 = fix fundamentals before any new positions.
Phase 1: Investment Thesis Development
Every position starts with a thesis. No thesis = no trade.
Thesis Brief Template
thesis:
ticker: "AAPL"
asset_class: "equity" # equity | crypto | etf | bond | commodity | real_estate
date: "2026-02-22"
# THE EDGE — why does this opportunity exist?
edge:
type: "mispricing" # mispricing | catalyst | trend | mean_reversion | structural
description: "Market pricing in worst-case regulation; actual impact is 5-10% revenue, not 30%"
why_others_miss_it: "Headline risk scaring generalists; specialists still buying"
# THESIS STATEMENT (one sentence)
thesis_statement: "AAPL is undervalued by 20% due to regulatory FUD; earnings growth will re-rate within 2 quarters"
# TIMEFRAME
timeframe:
horizon: "3-6 months"
catalyst_date: "2026-04-15" # earnings, FDA, macro event
catalyst_type: "earnings_beat"
# BULL / BASE / BEAR
scenarios:
bull:
probability: 30
target_price: 245
thesis: "Regulation light + Services acceleration"
base:
probability: 50
target_price: 215
thesis: "Regulation moderate, priced in by Q3"
bear:
probability: 20
target_price: 165
thesis: "Full regulatory impact + macro downturn"
# EXPECTED VALUE
# EV = (P_bull × R_bull) + (P_base × R_base) + (P_bear × R_bear)
current_price: 190
expected_value: 213.5 # (0.3×245 + 0.5×215 + 0.2×165)
ev_vs_current: "+12.4%"
# INVALIDATION — when you're WRONG
invalidation:
price_stop: 175 # -7.9% from entry
thesis_stop: "Revenue decline >10% YoY in any segment"
time_stop: "No catalyst by 2026-07-01"
# CONVICTION (1-5)
conviction: 4
conviction_factors:
- "3 independent data sources confirm undervaluation"
- "Insider buying last 90 days"
- "Valuation below 5Y average on EV/EBITDA"
Edge Type Framework
| Edge Type |
Description |
Validation Method |
Decay Rate |
| Mispricing |
Market wrong on fundamentals |
Comp analysis + model |
Slow (months) |
| Catalyst |
Known upcoming event |
Calendar + probability |
Fast (event-driven) |
| Trend |
Momentum / technical |
Price action + volume |
Medium (weeks) |
| Mean Reversion |
Extreme deviation from norm |
Z-score + history |
Medium |
| Structural |
Market structure creates opportunity |
Flow analysis |
Slow |
Thesis Quality Checklist
- [ ] Edge clearly articulated (not just "it's cheap")
- [ ] Bull/base/bear with probabilities summing to 100%
- [ ] Expected value positive vs current price
- [ ] At least 2 independent data sources
- [ ] Invalidation criteria defined (price + thesis + time)
- [ ] Timeframe realistic for the edge type
- [ ] Not just consensus view repackaged
- [ ] Considered "what if I'm wrong?"
Phase 2: Fundamental Analysis
Equity Analysis Framework
Valuation Metrics (collect all, weight by sector)
valuation:
# Price Multiples
pe_ratio: null # Price / Earnings (TTM)
forward_pe: null # Price / Forward Earnings
peg_ratio: null # PE / Earnings Growth Rate
ps_ratio: null # Price / Sales
pb_ratio: null # Price / Book
ev_ebitda: null # Enterprise Value / EBITDA
ev_revenue: null # Enterprise Value / Revenue
fcf_yield: null # Free Cash Flow / Market Cap
# Compare to:
sector_median: null
historical_5y_avg: null
historical_range: [null, null] # [low, high]
# Verdict
valuation_score: null # 1-10 (1=very expensive, 10=very cheap)
relative_to_sector: null # premium | inline | discount
Financial Health Scorecard
| Dimension |
Metric |
Healthy |
Warning |
Danger |
| Profitability |
Gross Margin |
>50% |
30-50% |
<30% |
| Profitability |
Net Margin |
>15% |
5-15% |
<5% |
| Profitability |
ROE |
>15% |
8-15% |
<8% |
| Profitability |
ROIC |
>12% |
6-12% |
<6% |
| Growth |
Revenue YoY |
>15% |
5-15% |
<5% |
| Growth |
EPS YoY |
>10% |
0-10% |
Declining |
| Growth |
FCF Growth |
>10% |
0-10% |
Declining |
| Leverage |
Debt/Equity |
<0.5 |
0.5-1.5 |
>1.5 |
| Leverage |
Interest Coverage |
>8x |
3-8x |
<3x |
| Leverage |
Net Debt/EBITDA |
<2x |
2-4x |
>4x |
| Liquidity |
Current Ratio |
>1.5 |
1-1.5 |
<1 |
| Liquidity |
Quick Ratio |
>1.0 |
0.5-1 |
<0.5 |
| Efficiency |
Asset Turnover |
>0.8 |
0.4-0.8 |
<0.4 |
| Efficiency |
Inventory Days |
<60 |
60-120 |
>120 |
| Quality |
FCF/Net Income |
>80% |
50-80% |
<50% |
| Quality |
Accruals Ratio |
<5% |
5-10% |
>10% |
Score each dimension 1-3. Total /48. Above 36 = strong. Below 24 = avoid.
Moat Assessment (0-25 points)
| Moat Source |
Score 0-5 |
Evidence Required |
| Network Effects |
|
Users increase value for other users |
| Switching Costs |
|
Painful to leave (data lock-in, integrations) |
| Cost Advantages |
|
Structural cost below competitors |
| Intangible Assets |
|
Brand, patents, regulatory licenses |
| Efficient Scale |
|
Market only supports limited competitors |
Score /25. Above 15 = wide moat. 8-15 = narrow. Below 8 = no moat.
Crypto Analysis Framework
crypto_analysis:
# Network Fundamentals
network:
daily_active_addresses: null
transaction_volume_24h: null
hash_rate_trend: null # BTC/PoW
staking_ratio: null # PoS chains
developer_activity: null # GitHub commits 90d
tvl: null # DeFi protocols
tvl_trend_30d: null
# Tokenomics
tokenomics:
supply_schedule: null # inflationary | deflationary | fixed
circulating_vs_total: null # % circulating
unlock_schedule: null # upcoming unlocks
concentration: null # top 10 holders %
# On-Chain Signals
on_chain:
exchange_reserves_trend: null # decreasing = bullish
whale_accumulation: null # large wallet changes
realized_profit_loss: null # NUPL
mvrv_ratio: null # Market Value / Realized Value
# Market Structure
market:
funding_rate: null # perpetuals funding
open_interest_trend: null
spot_vs_derivatives_volume: null
correlation_to_btc: null
correlation_to_sp500: null
Crypto Valuation Methods
| Method |
Best For |
Formula |
| Stock-to-Flow |
BTC |
Price = 0.4 × S2F^3 (check vs actual) |
| NVT Ratio |
L1 chains |
Network Value / Daily Transaction Value |
| TVL Ratio |
DeFi |
Market Cap / TVL (below 1 = undervalued) |
| Fee Revenue Multiple |
Revenue-generating |
MC / Annualized Fees |
| Metcalfe's Law |
Network tokens |
Value ∝ n² (active addresses) |
Phase 3: Technical Analysis
Price Action Framework
technical_analysis:
ticker: "BTC-USD"
timeframe: "daily"
date: "2026-02-22"
# TREND
trend:
primary: "uptrend" # uptrend | downtrend | range
higher_highs: true
higher_lows: true
above_200ma: true
above_50ma: true
ma_alignment: "bullish" # 20 > 50 > 200 = bullish
# KEY LEVELS
levels:
resistance: [105000, 110000, 120000]
support: [95000, 88000, 80000]
current_price: 98500
distance_to_resistance: "+6.6%"
distance_to_support: "-3.6%"
# MOMENTUM
momentum:
rsi_14: 58 # <30 oversold, >70 overbought
rsi_divergence: null # bullish_div | bearish_div | none
macd_signal: "bullish" # bullish | bearish | neutral
macd_histogram_trend: "increasing"
# VOLUME
volume:
vs_20d_avg: "+15%"
trend: "increasing_on_up_days" # confirms trend
# PATTERN
pattern:
current: "ascending_triangle"
reliability: "high"
target: 112000
invalidation: 93000
Signal Scoring Matrix
| Factor |
Bullish (+) |
Neutral (0) |
Bearish (-) |
| Trend (weight 3x) |
Above 200MA, higher highs |
Ranging |
Below 200MA, lower lows |
| Momentum (weight 2x) |
RSI 40-60 rising, MACD bull cross |
RSI 45-55 flat |
RSI >75 or bearish div |
| Volume (weight 2x) |
Rising on up moves |
Average |
Rising on down moves |
| Support/Resistance (weight 1x) |
Near strong support |
Mid-range |
Near strong resistance |
| Pattern (weight 1x) |
Bullish continuation |
No pattern |
Bearish reversal |
Score -9 to +9. Above +5 = strong buy signal. Below -5 = strong sell signal.
Phase 4: Position Sizing & Risk Management
Position Sizing Rules (MANDATORY)
risk_rules:
# Per-Trade Risk
max_risk_per_trade: 2% # of total equity
max_risk_aggressive: 3% # only with 5/5 conviction
# Portfolio Heat
max_portfolio_heat: 15% # total risk across all positions
max_correlated_exposure: 25% # in correlated assets
max_single_position: 10% # of total equity
# Position Size Formula
# Position Size = (Account × Risk%) / (Entry - Stop Loss)
# Example: ($100K × 2%) / ($190 - $175) = $2,000 / $15 = 133 shares
# Kelly Criterion (optional, aggressive)
# f* = (bp - q) / b
# b = win/loss ratio, p = win probability, q = 1-p
# ALWAYS use Half-Kelly or Quarter-Kelly (full Kelly = too aggressive)
Position Size Calculator
Account Equity: $___________
Risk Per Trade: ___% (max 2%)
Dollar Risk: $___________ (equity × risk%)
Entry Price: $___________
Stop Loss Price: $___________
Risk Per Share: $___________ (entry - stop)
Position Size: ___________ shares (dollar risk / risk per share)
Position Value: $___________ (shares × entry)
Portfolio Weight: ___% (position value / equity)
CHECK: Portfolio weight < 10%? ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)
CHECK: Portfolio heat < 15%? ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)
CHECK: Correlated exposure ok? ☐ Yes ☐ No (reduce if no)
Stop-Loss Decision Tree
Is this a TREND trade?
├── YES → Trailing stop below swing low (ATR-based: 2× ATR)
│ Initial stop: Below last higher low
│ Trail: Move stop to below each new higher low
│
└── NO → Is this a CATALYST trade?
├── YES → Time-based + price stop
│ Price: Below pre-catalyst support
│ Time: Close if no move within 2 days post-catalyst
│
└── Is this a VALUE trade?
├── YES → Thesis invalidation stop
│ Price: Below bear case scenario price
│ Thesis: Close if fundamental thesis breaks
│ Time: Close if no re-rating in stated timeframe
│
└── MEAN REVERSION → Tight stop
Price: If moves further from mean (wider Z-score)
Target: Mean / fair value level
Risk Management Hard Rules
- Never average down without a plan — Adding to losers kills accounts. Only add if: thesis intact AND price at predetermined add level AND total position still within limits
- Cut losses fast, let winners run — Asymmetric payoff is the goal. 1:3 risk/reward minimum
- No revenge trading — After a loss, wait 24 hours before next trade
- Daily loss limit — Stop trading for the day after -3% account drawdown
- Weekly loss limit — Reduce position sizes by 50% after -5% weekly drawdown
- Monthly loss limit — Go to cash if -10% monthly drawdown. Review all positions.
- Correlation check — Before every new position, check correlation to existing holdings
- Black swan rule — If any asset moves >15% in 24h, review ALL positions immediately
Phase 5: Portfolio Construction
Asset Allocation Framework
portfolio:
name: "Growth + Income"
target_allocation:
# Core (60-70% — low turnover)
core:
us_large_cap: 25% # S&P 500 / quality growth
international: 10% # Developed markets
fixed_income: 15% # Bonds / treasuries
bitcoin: 10% # Digital gold thesis
real_estate: 5% # REITs
# Satellite (20-30% — active management)
satellite:
growth_stocks: 15% # Individual stock picks
crypto_alts: 5% # L1s, DeFi
thematic: 5% # AI, clean energy, etc.
# Cash (5-15%)
cash: 10% # Dry powder for opportunities
# Rebalance Rules
rebalance:
method: "threshold" # calendar | threshold | hybrid
threshold: 5% # Rebalance when drift >5% from target
calendar_check: "monthly" # Review allocations monthly
tax_aware: true # Use new contributions to rebalance first
Portfolio Models by Risk Profile
| Profile |
Stocks |
Bonds |
Crypto |
Alts |
Cash |
Expected Return |
Max Drawdown |
| Conservative |
30% |
40% |
5% |
10% |
15% |
6-8% |
-15% |
| Balanced |
50% |
20% |
10% |
10% |
10% |
8-12% |
-25% |
| Growth |
60% |
10% |
15% |
10% |
5% |
12-18% |
-35% |
| Aggressive |
50% |
0% |
30% |
15% |
5% |
15-25% |
-50% |
| Degen |
20% |
0% |
50% |
25% |
5% |
20-40%+ |
-70%+ |
Correlation Matrix Template
Track correlations between holdings. Target: no two positions with >0.7 correlation exceeding 20% combined weight.
SPY BTC ETH AAPL MSFT GLD TLT
SPY 1.00
BTC 0.35 1.00
ETH 0.30 0.85 1.00
AAPL 0.82 0.25 0.20 1.00
MSFT 0.85 0.28 0.22 0.78 1.00
GLD -0.10 -0.05 -0.08 -0.12 -0.10 1.00
TLT -0.35 -0.15 -0.12 -0.30 -0.32 0.40 1.00
Phase 6: Trade Execution
Trade Journal Template
trade:
id: "T-2026-042"
date_opened: "2026-02-22"
date_closed: null
# WHAT
ticker: "BTC-USD"
direction: "long"
asset_class: "crypto"
# SIZING
entry_price: 98500
position_size: 0.15 # BTC
position_value: 14775
portfolio_weight: "8.2%"
# RISK
stop_loss: 93000
risk_amount: 825 # (98500-93000) × 0.15
risk_percent: "0.82%" # of portfolio
# TARGETS
target_1: 105000 # 50% of position
target_2: 115000 # 30% of position
target_3: 130000 # 20% of position (runner)
risk_reward: "1:3.8" # avg target vs risk
# THESIS
thesis: "BTC consolidating above 200MA, halving supply reduction, ETF inflows accelerating"
edge_type: "trend + structural"
conviction: 4
# EXECUTION
entry_type: "limit" # market | limit | scaled
scale_plan: null # or: [{"price": 97000, "size": "50%"}, {"price": 95000, "size": "50%"}]
# RESULT (fill on close)
exit_price: null
exit_reason: null # target_hit | stop_hit | thesis_invalidated | time_stop | manual
pnl_dollar: null
pnl_percent: null
r_multiple: null # PnL / initial risk
# REVIEW
followed_plan: null # yes | partially | no
lessons: null
mistakes: null
grade: null # A-F
Execution Checklist (Before EVERY Trade)
- [ ] Thesis documented with edge, invalidation, timeframe
- [ ] Position size calculated (≤2% risk, ≤10% portfolio weight)
- [ ] Stop-loss set (price + thesis + time)
- [ ] At least 2 take-profit targets defined
- [ ] Risk/reward ≥1:2 (preferably 1:3+)
- [ ] Portfolio heat check (total risk <15%)
- [ ] Correlation check (not adding to concentrated exposure)
- [ ] No emotional driver (revenge, FOMO, boredom)
- [ ] Checked economic calendar (no surprise events imminent)
- [ ] Entry type decided (market/limit/scaled)
Order Types Decision
| Situation |
Order Type |
Why |
| Strong conviction, want in now |
Market |
Speed over price |
| Good setup, not urgent |
Limit at support |
Better entry |
| High-conviction, want scale in |
Scaled limits (3 levels) |
Average entry, reduce timing risk |
| Breakout trade |
Stop-limit above resistance |
Only enter if breakout confirms |
| Catalyst trade |
Limit pre-catalyst |
Position before event |
Daily Dashboard
daily_dashboard:
date: "2026-02-22"
# PORTFOLIO SNAPSHOT
portfolio:
total_equity: null
daily_pnl: null
daily_pnl_percent: null
weekly_pnl: null
monthly_pnl: null
ytd_pnl: null
# POSITIONS
open_positions: 0
portfolio_heat: "0%" # sum of all position risks
cash_percent: "100%"
# BENCHMARK
benchmark:
sp500_ytd: null
btc_ytd: null
portfolio_vs_sp500: null
portfolio_vs_btc: null
# ACTIVITY
trades_today: 0
alerts_triggered: []
| Metric |
Formula |
Target |
| Win Rate |
Winning trades / Total trades |
>50% |
| Average R |
Average R-multiple of all trades |
>1.5R |
| Profit Factor |
Gross profit / Gross loss |
>2.0 |
| Expectancy |
(Win% × Avg Win) - (Loss% × Avg Loss) |
Positive |
| Max Drawdown |
Peak to trough decline |
<-15% |
| Sharpe Ratio |
(Return - RFR) / Std Dev |
>1.5 |
| Sortino Ratio |
(Return - RFR) / Downside Dev |
>2.0 |
| Calmar Ratio |
Annual Return / Max Drawdown |
>1.0 |
| Recovery Factor |
Net Profit / Max Drawdown |
>3.0 |
Monthly Review Template
monthly_review:
month: "2026-02"
# PERFORMANCE
portfolio_return: null
benchmark_return: null # vs S&P 500
alpha: null # portfolio - benchmark
# TRADING STATS
total_trades: 0
winning_trades: 0
losing_trades: 0
win_rate: null
average_winner: null
average_loser: null
largest_winner: null
largest_loser: null
profit_factor: null
# RISK STATS
max_drawdown: null
avg_portfolio_heat: null
risk_rule_violations: 0
# BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS
followed_plan_rate: null # % of trades that followed the plan
emotional_trades: 0 # trades driven by FOMO/revenge/boredom
early_exits: 0 # cut winners short
late_exits: 0 # held losers too long
# TOP 3 LESSONS
lessons:
- null
- null
- null
# ADJUSTMENTS FOR NEXT MONTH
adjustments:
- null
Phase 8: Market Regime Detection
Regime Framework
| Regime |
Characteristics |
Strategy |
Position Size |
| Bull Trend |
Rising 200MA, breadth >60%, VIX <20 |
Trend following, buy dips |
Full size |
| Bear Trend |
Falling 200MA, breadth <40%, VIX >30 |
Short / inverse, raise cash |
Half size |
| Range/Chop |
Flat 200MA, breadth 40-60% |
Mean reversion, sell premium |
Quarter size |
| High Vol |
VIX >35, large daily swings |
Reduce exposure, hedge |
Minimum size |
| Euphoria |
VIX <12, extreme bullish sentiment |
Take profits, hedge |
Scale down |
| Panic |
VIX >50, capitulation signals |
Accumulate quality |
Scale in slowly |
Macro Checklist (Weekly)
- [ ] Fed funds rate / next meeting: ___
- [ ] US 10Y yield trend: ___
- [ ] Dollar (DXY) trend: ___
- [ ] VIX level: ___
- [ ] Credit spreads: ___ (tightening/widening)
- [ ] Yield curve: ___ (inverted/flat/steep)
- [ ] Leading indicators: ___ (improving/declining)
- [ ] Global liquidity trend: ___ (expanding/contracting)
- [ ] Sector rotation: ___ (risk-on/risk-off)
- [ ] Crypto market cap trend: ___
Sentiment Indicators
| Indicator |
Extreme Fear (Buy) |
Neutral |
Extreme Greed (Sell) |
| CNN Fear & Greed |
<20 |
40-60 |
>80 |
| AAII Bull-Bear |
>-30% spread |
±10% |
>+30% spread |
| Put/Call Ratio |
>1.2 |
0.7-0.9 |
<0.5 |
| VIX Term Structure |
Backwardation |
Flat |
Steep contango |
| Crypto Fear & Greed |
<15 |
40-60 |
>85 |
| BTC Funding Rates |
Deeply negative |
Neutral |
>0.05% |
Phase 9: Dividend & Income Analysis
Dividend Quality Score (0-100)
| Factor |
Weight |
Scoring |
| Yield vs Sector |
15 |
At/above median = 15, below = proportional |
| Payout Ratio |
20 |
<50% = 20, 50-75% = 15, 75-100% = 5, >100% = 0 |
| Growth Rate (5Y CAGR) |
20 |
>10% = 20, 5-10% = 15, 0-5% = 10, declining = 0 |
| Consecutive Years |
15 |
>25y = 15 (Aristocrat), 10-25 = 10, 5-10 = 5, <5 = 0 |
| FCF Coverage |
15 |
FCF/Div >1.5 = 15, 1-1.5 = 10, <1 = 0 |
| Debt/EBITDA |
15 |
<2 = 15, 2-4 = 10, >4 = 5 |
Score /100. Above 75 = excellent income pick. Below 40 = dividend at risk.
Income Portfolio Construction
- Core income (60%): Dividend Aristocrats, quality REITs, investment-grade bonds
- Growth income (25%): Dividend growers (low yield, high growth rate)
- High yield (15%): Higher risk, higher yield (junk bonds, BDCs, covered calls)
- Yield target: 4-6% blended, growing 5-8% annually
Phase 10: Tax Optimization
Tax-Loss Harvesting Rules
- When: Position down >10% from cost basis AND held <12 months
- How: Sell the position, immediately buy a correlated (not substantially identical) replacement
- Wash sale rule: Cannot buy back the same security within 30 days (before or after)
- Replacement examples: SPY→VOO, AAPL→QQQ, BTC spot→BTC futures ETF
- Track: Cumulative harvested losses, offset against gains + $3K income deduction
Holding Period Optimization
| Holding Period |
Tax Rate (US) |
Strategy |
| <1 year |
Ordinary income (up to 37%) |
Only for high-conviction short-term trades |
| >1 year |
Long-term CG (0/15/20%) |
Default for all positions when possible |
| >5 years (QOZ) |
Reduced + deferred |
Qualified Opportunity Zone investments |
Tax-Efficient Account Allocation
| Account Type |
Best For |
Why |
| Taxable |
Long-term holds, tax-loss harvesting |
Capital gains treatment |
| Traditional IRA/401k |
Bonds, REITs, high-dividend |
Defer high-tax income |
| Roth IRA |
Highest growth potential |
Tax-free growth |
| HSA |
Aggressive growth |
Triple tax advantage |
Phase 11: Screening & Idea Generation
Stock Screener Criteria Templates
Value Screen:
- P/E < sector median
- P/B < 1.5
- Debt/Equity < 0.5
- ROE > 12%
- FCF positive 5 consecutive years
- Insider buying last 90 days
Growth Screen:
- Revenue growth > 20% YoY
- EPS growth > 15% YoY
- Gross margin > 50%
- Net retention > 110% (SaaS)
- TAM > $10B
Dividend Screen:
- Dividend yield > 3%
- Payout ratio < 60%
- Dividend growth > 5% CAGR (5Y)
- Consecutive increases > 10 years
- Debt/EBITDA < 3
Crypto Screen:
- Market cap > $1B (avoid micro-caps)
- Daily volume > $50M
- Active development (GitHub commits)
- Not >90% held by top 10 wallets
- Clear revenue model or adoption metrics
Research Sources (No API Required)
| Source |
URL |
Best For |
| Yahoo Finance |
finance.yahoo.com |
Fundamentals, quotes |
| Finviz |
finviz.com |
Screening, heatmaps |
| Macrotrends |
macrotrends.net |
Historical financials |
| CoinGecko |
coingecko.com |
Crypto data |
| DeFiLlama |
defillama.com |
DeFi TVL, yields |
| FRED |
fred.stlouisfed.org |
Macro data |
| TradingView |
tradingview.com |
Charts, technicals |
| SEC EDGAR |
sec.gov/edgar |
Filings, insider trades |
| Glassnode |
glassnode.com |
On-chain data |
| Fear & Greed |
alternative.me |
Crypto sentiment |
Phase 12: Advanced Strategies
Options Basics (for hedging)
| Strategy |
When |
Risk |
Reward |
| Protective Put |
Own stock, want downside protection |
Premium paid |
Unlimited upside, limited downside |
| Covered Call |
Own stock, willing to cap upside |
Capped gains |
Premium income |
| Cash-Secured Put |
Want to buy at lower price |
Must buy at strike |
Premium + lower entry |
| Collar |
Want protection, willing to cap upside |
Capped both ways |
Low/no cost protection |
DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) Framework
dca_plan:
asset: "BTC"
frequency: "weekly" # daily | weekly | biweekly | monthly
amount: 250 # per purchase
day: "Monday" # specific day
duration: "indefinite" # or end date
# SMART DCA (optional — buy more when cheap)
smart_dca:
enabled: true
base_amount: 250
multiplier_rules:
- condition: "price < 200MA"
multiplier: 1.5 # buy 50% more
- condition: "RSI < 30"
multiplier: 2.0 # double buy
- condition: "price > 200MA × 1.5"
multiplier: 0.5 # buy less in euphoria
Rebalancing Decision Tree
Is any allocation >5% from target?
├── NO → No action needed. Check again next month.
│
└── YES → Is it a tax-advantaged account?
├── YES → Rebalance by selling overweight, buying underweight
│
└── NO (taxable) → Can you rebalance with new contributions?
├── YES → Direct new money to underweight positions
│
└── NO → Are there tax losses to harvest?
├── YES → Sell losers (harvest), redirect to underweight
│
└── NO → Is the drift >10%?
├── YES → Rebalance (accept tax hit for risk control)
└── NO → Wait for next contribution or year-end
Investor Psychology Rules
10 Cognitive Biases That Kill Returns
| Bias |
Trap |
Defense |
| Loss Aversion |
Holding losers, cutting winners |
Pre-set stops, mechanical exits |
| Confirmation Bias |
Only seeing data that supports thesis |
Actively seek disconfirming evidence |
| Recency Bias |
Extrapolating recent performance |
Look at full cycle data (10+ years) |
| Anchoring |
Fixating on purchase price |
Focus on current value vs alternatives |
| FOMO |
Chasing after 50%+ move |
Stick to your screener, your edge |
| Overconfidence |
Too large positions after wins |
Fixed position sizing rules |
| Disposition Effect |
Selling winners too early |
Trailing stops, let runners run |
| Herding |
Buying because everyone is |
Contrarian checkpoints |
| Sunk Cost |
"I've held this long, can't sell now" |
Would you buy this TODAY at this price? |
| Hindsight |
"I knew it all along" |
Review trade journal honestly |
Trading Psychology Checklist (Daily)
- [ ] Am I calm? (no anger, fear, or euphoria)
- [ ] Am I following my system? (not improvising)
- [ ] Am I within risk limits? (checked portfolio heat)
- [ ] Am I trading my plan? (not reacting to noise)
- [ ] Have I done my analysis? (not trading on tips)
Quality Scoring (0-100)
| Dimension |
Weight |
Criteria |
| Thesis Quality |
20 |
Clear edge, documented invalidation, realistic timeframe |
| Risk Management |
25 |
Position sizing, stops, portfolio heat, correlation |
| Analysis Depth |
15 |
Fundamental + technical + macro considered |
| Execution |
15 |
Entry/exit discipline, order type selection, patience |
| Record Keeping |
10 |
Trade journal, performance metrics, monthly reviews |
| Psychology |
10 |
Emotional control, bias awareness, plan adherence |
| Tax Efficiency |
5 |
Harvesting, account allocation, holding periods |
Score /100. Above 80 = professional-grade process. Below 50 = gambling.
Natural Language Commands
| Command |
Action |
| "Analyze [ticker]" |
Full fundamental + technical analysis |
| "Compare [ticker1] vs [ticker2]" |
Side-by-side comparison |
| "Build thesis for [ticker]" |
Generate thesis brief template |
| "Size position for [ticker] at [price]" |
Calculate position size with risk |
| "Portfolio health check" |
Score current portfolio /8 |
| "Monthly review" |
Generate performance review template |
| "Screen for [value/growth/dividend/crypto]" |
Apply screening criteria |
| "What's the market regime?" |
Assess current macro environment |
| "Tax harvest opportunities" |
Identify positions for loss harvesting |
| "DCA plan for [asset]" |
Generate dollar cost averaging plan |
| "Dividend score for [ticker]" |
Run dividend quality analysis |
| "Risk report" |
Portfolio heat, correlations, exposure summary |
Built by AfrexAI — turning market noise into signal. 🖤💛
Sourced from ClawHub,
Authored by 1kalin